How this works: This forecast relies on 50,000 simulations of the season and updates after each sport. Our conventional mannequin makes use of Elo scores (a measure of power based mostly on head-to-head outcomes and high quality of opponent) to calculate groups’ probabilities of successful their regular-season video games and advancing to and thru the playoffs. Our quarterback-adjusted Elo mannequin incorporates information experiences to undertaking probably starters for each upcoming sport and makes use of our quarterback Elo scores to regulate win chances for these video games. A staff’s present quarterback adjustment relies on its probably starter in its subsequent sport and the way a lot better or worse that QB is than the staff’s prime starter. Full methodology »
Recreation metrics are on a 0-100 scale. High quality is decided by the harmonic imply of the groups’ Elo scores; significance measures how a lot the outcome will alter playoff projections; the general quantity is the common of the standard and significance values.
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