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With the offseason drawing nearer, MLBTR shall be breaking down the free-agent class on a position-by-position foundation. We’ve already run via this winter’s crop of catchers, first basemen and second basemen. You’ll be able to try the full record of this offseason’s free brokers right here, however right this moment we’ll take a deeper have a look at the choices for groups in want of assist at third base subsequent.
As was the case when operating via the second-base market, I’ll observe that there are some star shortstops (e.g. Xander Bogaerts) who may technically be pursued as a 3rd base possibility for a group that already has an entrenched shortstop, however we’ll save that group for the shortstop preview. There’s loads of overlap with the second base market, as lots of the free-agent choices this winter are utility sorts who can capably deal with both spot.
His Personal Tier
Whether or not Arenado truly turns into a free agent is solely as much as him. He has 5 years and $144MM remaining on his contract but in addition has an opt-out clause at season’s finish that may enable him to enter into the free-agent marketplace for the primary time in his profession. Arenado selected to not train an opt-out after the 2021 season, however he’s now owed much less cash and is coming off maybe the best season of his sensible profession. (Jon Heyman of the New York Publish wrote in September that Arenado was not planning to choose out, citing “mates” of Arenado, however Arenado himself has not made any declarations a technique or one other.)
Even when Arenado’s aim is to stay in St. Louis, there’s a great case for him to leverage that opt-out and an enormous 2022 displaying into an extension or bigger take care of the Playing cards. By 618 plate appearances, Arenado is hitting .292/.358/.533 with 30 house runs, 42 doubles, a triple and 5 steals (in eight tries). Arenado’s 11.5% strikeout price is the second-lowest of his profession (and lowest over a full 162-game season). He’s second amongst all Main League third basemen in each Defensive Runs Saved (19) and Outs Above Common (14), trailing solely Pittsburgh’s Ke’Bryan Hayes in each classes.
The 5 years and $144MM remaining on Arenado’s contract common out to $28.8MM yearly — a quantity that, at this level, is a methods shy of the place the sport’s high place gamers are paid on an annual foundation. As a result of subsequent 12 months shall be his age-32 season, it’s onerous to think about him securing something longer than a six-year deal in free company, however as Freddie Freeman illustrated final 12 months, it’s attainable for a free agent to safe six years at that age. Arenado, after all, is coming off a fair higher season this 12 months than Freeman was final winter. He’s been value 7.2 fWAR and seven.8 rWAR — each of that are private bests in what more and more seems to be a Corridor of Fame-caliber profession.
There’s no assure that Arenado reaches free company, but when he does, it’s a straightforward name to mission a bigger assure over 5 years — and maybe over a fair lengthier time period than that.
A Distant Second Place
Drury had a tough patch to start his tenure with the Padres following a deadline swap, however he’s been swinging it simply high quality over the previous month. Relationship again to Aug. 29, Drury owns a .288/.338/.575 batting line in 80 plate appearances, and he’s logged a collective .263/.320/.497 batting line on the season. His minor league take care of the Reds was among the finest of the season by any group.
Suitors in free company might view Drury’s 2022 marketing campaign with some skepticism, given his disastrous 2018-20 run between the Yankees and Blue Jays (.205/.254/.346 in 582 plate appearances). Nevertheless, Drury hit in a small pattern with the Mets final 12 months and has been typically productive in 2022, save for an unsightly first three weeks or so in San Diego. Since Opening Day 2021, he’s at .265/.318/.494 with 32 house runs, 36 doubles and two triples in 645 plate appearances. One would suppose that enjoying an enormous slate of video games at Cincinnati’s Nice American Ball Park has padded his stats, however solely 12 of his 28 homers got here in Cincinnati.
Defensively, third base has been Drury’s most frequent place each in 2022 and, extra narrowly, in his broader profession. He’s been a scratch defender there, per Statcast’s Outs Above Common, and Final Zone Score typically agrees. Defensive Runs Saved (-3) has him a bit beneath common, and that’s typically been the case all through his profession. Nonetheless, Drury isn’t any sort of obvious legal responsibility on the sizzling nook, and he has 1436 MLB innings at second base, 965 between the outfield corners and 361 at first base. On the very least, he seems like a super-utility participant, however Drury has hit sufficient to be thought of a possible starter at second or third, as properly.
Utility Gamers
Diaz has performed at the very least 45 innings at 5 completely different positions this season: all 4 infield spots and left area. He was primarily a shortstop early in his profession and nonetheless has extra whole innings there than at any place. He by no means graded properly there, and as he enters his mid-30s, he’ll be seen as extra of a utility participant. Diaz’s .248/.294/.415 line in 2022 is a bit down from the .259/.318/.433 slash he’s posted over 4 whole seasons with the ’Stros. He’s a right-handed bat who’s proven a fairly noticeable platoon cut up over the previous couple seasons, although early in his profession he hit fellow righties higher than lefties. Third base isn’t Diaz’s main place, however he’s nonetheless tallied 758 innings there in his profession.
Primarily a second baseman till the present marketing campaign, Peterson has performed principally third base in Milwaukee this season and posted sensational defensive marks there, together with 11 Defensive Runs Saved and 6 Outs Above Common in simply 605 innings. The lefty-swinging Peterson has revived his profession with a strong three-year run in Milwaukee, hitting .241/.339/.377 (100 wRC+) with a hefty 12.4% stroll price, 16 homers and 23 steals in 684 plate appearances. He’s even dealt with lefties properly in a small pattern over the previous two seasons, though a profession .217/.289/.282 output in opposition to them nonetheless suggests he’s finest deployed in opposition to righties solely.
A hamstring pressure value Solano greater than two months, however since being activated, he’s batted .284/.338/.384 with 4 homers and 15 doubles in 293 journeys to the plate. Solano has been fairly good at house, in Cincinnati’s Nice American Ball Park, and below-average on the street, however that is the fourth consecutive season he’s headed for at the very least league-average offense general. Relationship again to his 2019 resurgence with the Giants, “Donnie Barrels” is hitting .301/.350/421 in 1068 plate appearances. He’ll flip 35 in December, although, and his defensive grades at second, third and shortstop in recent times are all missing. He’s posted glorious numbers in 190 innings as a primary baseman this 12 months, nonetheless (5 DRS, 3 OAA).
Depth Choices and Rebound Hopefuls
- Ehire Adrianza (33): A switch-hitter with appreciable expertise all around the infield and in each outfield corners, Adrianza doesn’t hit significantly properly from both facet of the dish and doesn’t have nice defensive marks wherever. He’s batted .215/.302/.320 in 415 plate appearances since Opening Day 2020.
- Charlie Culberson (34): Culberson torments lefties, is usually thought to be a powerful clubhouse presence and has performed each huge league place besides heart area and catcher. Since a career-high 12 homers in 2018, nonetheless, he’s slashed simply .248/.291/.384 in 542 plate appearances.
- Matt Duffy (32): A daily at third base with the Giants and Rays earlier in his profession, Duffy has lengthy been touted as a powerful defensive participant. Accidents have hampered him extensively in recent times, limiting him to 730 plate appearances over the previous 4 seasons. He’s hit moderately properly in that point: .267/.338/.346.
- Maikel Franco (30): As soon as one of many recreation’s high prospects, Franco by no means developed into the slugger the Phillies hoped. With only a .233/.278/.384 slash since 2019 (together with .229/.255/.342 with the Nats this 12 months) and woeful defensive grades, the 30-year-old Franco is probably going one other minor league deal this winter.
- Marwin Gonzalez (34): The veteran switch-hitter has survived on the Yankees’ roster all season regardless of hitting simply .180/.255/.308 in 195 plate appearances. Gonzalez’s profession 12 months in 2017 helped him land a two-year take care of the Minnesota, and because the second season of that contract he’s since cratered with a .197/.273/.310 slash throughout 701 plate appearances.
- Phil Gosselin (34): The journeyman utility participant has expertise at each infield spot and within the outfield corners. He hit .149/.182/.176 in 77 plate appearances this 12 months however did document a good .259/.316/.371 slash in 475 plate appearances from 2020-21.
- Jonathan Villar (32): Villar hit 24 homers and swiped 40 luggage with the O’s in 2019, struggled via a dismal displaying between Miami and Toronto in 2020, and rebounded properly with the 2021 Mets. The pendulum swung again within the different route this 12 months, as he’s been launched by each the Cubs and Angels whereas hitting a mixed .208/.260/.302. At his finest, Villar is a switch-hitter with some energy and difference-making pace, however he’s been wildly inconsistent all through his profession.
Veterans with Membership Choices
- Hanser Alberto (30): Alberto’s one-year take care of the Dodgers contained a $2MM membership possibility and a $250K buyout. Los Angeles will all probably go for the buyout after Alberto has batted .234/.248/.357 in 157 journeys to the plate. Alberto has strong defensive rankings across the infield and hits lefties properly — profession .322/.340/.448 hitter in 581 plate appearances — giving him some bench enchantment. His current poor showings shall be onerous to miss, although.
- Josh Harrison (35): Just about the whole lot I wrote about Harrison final week within the second base preview nonetheless holds up. He’s had a tricky week on the plate, so his offense has now fallen to barely beneath common, by measure of wRC+ (96). Nonetheless, a .256/.317/.361 output with six homers, 18 doubles and a pair of triples is first rate manufacturing for an reasonably priced veteran who’s turned in plus defensive marks at each second base and third base this season. Harrison can also be loads skilled within the outfield corners, and after a tough displaying in 2018-19 has been a barely above-average hitter over the lifetime of three seasons. He has a $5.625MM possibility with a $1.5MM buyout, and a web $4.125MM value appears loads cheap. The White Sox, although, are already dealing with a possible document payroll subsequent 12 months and may need extra offense than Harrison can present, despite the fact that his general price ticket is eminently cheap.
- Evan Longoria (37): Given the Giants’ general outcomes this 12 months and the period of time Longoria has spent on the injured record, it feels secure to say he’s probably having a greater season than many understand. He’s not the Longo of previous, however even at age 36, he’s turned in a .244/.315/.451 batting line with 14 homers and 13 doubles in simply 298 plate appearances. Longoria is putting out greater than ever (27.9%) and is now not the elite defender he was in his 20s. He’s nonetheless making tons of onerous contact and hitting for energy, although. The Giants maintain a $13MM possibility with a $5MM buyout, and the Giants might choose that buyout as they give the impression of being to get youthful. Longoria mentioned the potential of retirement in an interview with Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle earlier this summer time. It’ll be a household determination on whether or not he’ll proceed enjoying at age 37, however given his enormous output in opposition to lefties and his general batted-ball profile, there must be curiosity within the veteran slugger even when it’s in a extra diminished function.
- Justin Turner (38): A Dodgers fixture who hasn’t stopped hitting at the same time as his thirty eighth birthday approaches (November), Turner has a $16MM membership possibility with a $2MM buyout. That would’ve vested routinely primarily based on MVP voting, however that’s not going to occur — strong as Turner’s season has been. In 525 journeys to the plate, he’s hit .280/.352/.443 with 13 lengthy balls — good for a 125 wRC+. The Dodgers have not too long ago picked up the choices of some gamers and tacked on a brand new membership possibility for 2024, and given Turner’s consistency maybe they’ll have a look at doing the identical right here. Turner remains to be an excellent hitter, however his defensive rankings at third base have dipped and he’s spent almost half his time at designated hitter in 2022.
