Jon Driedger of LeftField Commodity Analysis lately took a tour throughout Western Canada with LeftField Commodity Analysis and Argus Media to research the yield potential of the Prairie crop. Like every yr, there are extraordinarily variable pockets, however Driedger says for essentially the most half, yields are wanting common.
The abstract for cereals — excluding durum, as it’s grown in a few of the areas that actually didn’t get a variety of rain this yr — was common plus, says Driedger. Pulses and canola numbers they noticed have been round common as properly.
As talked about, there are some exceptions to this common, with one of many greater caveats being the lateness to a variety of the crop.
“Notably within the jap half of the Prairies the place it was moist, and it acquired within the floor late, perhaps even in kind of central Alberta [is late]. And as you moved somewhat bit additional North, I believe that significantly within the case of canola, it acquired somewhat late, and in some instances perhaps it was somewhat sluggish going. So there’s some frost danger,” he explains. “If you’ve got open fall, all the pieces is ok. Or, in case you have a little bit of an early frost, the crop just isn’t fairly there, and now you’ve got had an affect both on yield high quality, or each.”
When it comes to estimates, the group at LeftField Commodity Analysis is estimating about 19.6 million metric tonnes (MMT) of canola, which relies on a yield of 41 bushels per acre. In accordance with Driedger, this can be a bit beneath common, whenever you exclude 2021 within the five-year common.
“That’s based mostly on what farmers say, and a few of the farms we checked out. In central Alberta, the barley seems nice, wheat is an effective common plus form of consistency. Canola is form of the one which’s lagging a bit. Frost is a little bit of a wild card, however actually an enormous enchancment from final yr’s catastrophe.”
Be taught extra about yield expectations and the place the market is sitting within the full dialog with Driedger, right here: